Appendix 2: Comparison
of the MISCAN, SimCRC and CRC-SPIN models on natural history outcomes
Outcome |
MISCAN |
SimCRC |
CRC-SPIN |
Adenoma prevalence, age 65: |
39.8% |
37.2% |
30.7% |
Number of adenomas per 1000 by
site and size, age 65 |
Proximal colon: ≤5 mm |
121.2 |
171.7 |
190.2 |
Proximal colon: 6-9
mm |
69.9 |
186.2 |
67.8 |
Proximal colon: ≥10
mm |
61.8 |
23.9 |
40.8 |
Distal colon: ≤5 mm |
134.4 |
124.2 |
124.5 |
Distal colon: 6-9
mm |
77.4 |
18.2 |
44.4 |
Distal colon: ≥10 mm |
68.4 |
41.6 |
26.7 |
Rectum: ≤5 mm |
133.5 |
8.7 |
14.1 |
Rectum: 6-9
mm |
76.8 |
16.0 |
9.1 |
Rectum: ≥10 mm |
68.1 |
15.8 |
20.2 |
Distribution of adenomas by site
and size, age 65 (%) |
Proximal colon: =5 mm |
15 |
28 |
35 |
Proximal colon: 6-9 mm |
9 |
31 |
13 |
Proximal colon: =10 mm |
8 |
4 |
8 |
Total |
31 |
63 |
56 |
Distal colon: =5 mm |
17 |
20 |
23 |
Distal colon: 6-9 mm |
10 |
3 |
8 |
Distal colon: =10 mm |
8 |
7 |
5 |
Total |
35 |
30 |
36 |
Rectum: =5 mm |
16 |
1 |
3 |
Rectum: 6-9 mm |
9 |
3 |
2 |
Rectum: =10 mm |
8 |
3 |
4 |
Total |
34 |
7 |
8 |
CRC incidence among cancer-free
65-year-old population, % |
10-year: Stage I |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
10-year: Stage II |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
10-year: Stage III |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
10-year: Stage IV |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
10-year: Total |
2.1 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
|
20-year: Stage I |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
20-year: Stage II |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
20-year: Stage III |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
20-year: Stage IV |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
20-year: Total |
4.4 |
4.6 |
3.9 |
|
Lifetime: Stage I |
1 |
1 |
0.9 |
Lifetime: Stage II |
2.1 |
2 |
1.9 |
Lifetime: Stage III |
1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
Lifetime: Stage IV |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1 |
Lifetime: Total |
5.7 |
6 |
5.3 |
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