Appendix 2: Comparison of the MISCAN, SimCRC and CRC-SPIN models on natural history outcomes

Outcome MISCAN SimCRC CRC-SPIN
Adenoma prevalence, age 65: 39.8% 37.2% 30.7%
Number of adenomas per 1000 by site and size, age 65
  Proximal colon: ≤5 mm 121.2 171.7 190.2
  Proximal colon: 6-9 mm 69.9 186.2 67.8
  Proximal colon: ≥10 mm 61.8 23.9 40.8
  Distal colon: ≤5 mm 134.4 124.2 124.5
  Distal colon: 6-9 mm 77.4 18.2 44.4
  Distal colon: ≥10 mm 68.4 41.6 26.7
  Rectum: ≤5 mm 133.5 8.7 14.1
  Rectum: 6-9 mm 76.8 16.0 9.1
  Rectum: ≥10 mm 68.1 15.8 20.2
Distribution of adenomas by site and size, age 65 (%)
  Proximal colon: =5 mm 15 28 35
  Proximal colon: 6-9 mm 9 31 13
  Proximal colon: =10 mm 8 4 8
  Total 31 63 56
  Distal colon: =5 mm 17 20 23
  Distal colon: 6-9 mm 10 3 8
  Distal colon: =10 mm 8 7 5
  Total 35 30 36
  Rectum: =5 mm 16 1 3
  Rectum: 6-9 mm 9 3 2
  Rectum: =10 mm 8 3 4
  Total 34 7 8
CRC incidence among cancer-free 65-year-old population, %
  10-year: Stage I 0.4 0.4 0.3
  10-year: Stage II 0.7 0.7 0.7
  10-year: Stage III 0.5 0.5 0.5
  10-year: Stage IV 0.5 0.5 0.3
  10-year: Total 2.1 2.2 1.8
 
  20-year: Stage I 0.8 0.8 0.7
  20-year: Stage II 1.6 1.5 1.4
  20-year: Stage III 1.0 1.0 1.0
  20-year: Stage IV 1.0 1.2 0.7
  20-year: Total 4.4 4.6 3.9
 
  Lifetime: Stage I 1 1 0.9
  Lifetime: Stage II 2.1 2 1.9
  Lifetime: Stage III 1.3 1.4 1.4
  Lifetime: Stage IV 1.3 1.6 1
  Lifetime: Total 5.7 6 5.3

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