National health expenditures, 1986-2000.

Patterns of spending for health during 1986 and beyond reflect a mixture of adherence to and change from historical trends. From a level of $458 billion in 1986--10.9 percent of the GNP--national health expenditures are projected to reach $1.5 trillion by the year 2000--15.0 percent of the GNP. This article presents a provisional estimate of spending in 1986 and projections of spending (under the assumption of current law) through the year 2000. Also discussed are the effects of the demographic composition of the population on spending for health, and how spending would increase in the future simply as a result of the evolution of that composition.