Stability of frailty in the social/health maintenance organization.

Although many long-term care (LTC) programs assume that the disabilities of their frail elderly participants are stable in nature, there has been suggestive evidence to the contrary. This study tests stability of disability among social/health maintenance organization (S/HMO) members who were judged eligible for admission into a nursing home. Identified persons were reassessed quarterly. By the end of 1 year, less than 50 percent were still considered to be nursing home eligible. Logit analysis revealed an increased likelihood of instability for persons who were newly identified as functionally disabled after hospitalization. Policy implications for capitated managed-care programs for the elderly are discussed.