Time Series Modeling and Related Economic Forecasting Methods in Long-Run Health Expenditure Projections

The purpose of this task order is to determine the immediate potential of time series methods and related economic forecasting methods as tools for improving long-range forecasts of health expenditures. Other goals of the task order are: 1) critically evaluating the existing research literature for forecasting aggregate health expenditures; 2) developing a research agenda in consultation with the Office of the Actuary concerning time series/economic forecasting of aggregate health expenditures; 3) completing forecasting studies to be agreed upon with the Office of the Actuary.